This report provides an indicators-based assessment of conflict risk in the five West African countries of Gambia, Guinea, Liberia, Senegal, and Sierra Leone. The Analysis crosses nine interrelated issue areas identified as underlying potential for conflict development: History of armed conflict; Governance and political instability; Militarization; Population heterogeneity; Demographic stress; Economic Performance; Human development; and International linkages.

This document contains an overview of the CIFP methodology in relation to existing risk assessment and early warning models.